Friday, January 18, 2013

A Return to the Field

What happens when you take your  eye off the ball? It hits you in the head. I tried this for myself as a little girl, and it was painful. Now I've done it again as what's known as a mature adult, and it's still painful.
I mean I lost money!
Lots of money.
Fortunately, its not the first time I've done this. If someone else had lost my money, I would have been angry. Since I lost it myself, I consider it an education, and after 6 months of seeing my accounts recover, I am actively looking to see: what's beyond redemption, that I need to sell?
 I sold a Chinese fertilizer company called Migao. They are doing badly, with no signs of doing any better any time soon.
I telephoned the CFO of a Canadian maker of solar-powered LEDs for remote locations (Carmanah) who was not smooth and smarmy. I will hold them.
One great thing about investing the way I do is that it provides a structure for looking at what's happening in the world. According to the Institute of Physics 2012 Renewables Report, the world has 245 GW of installed solar thermal power, which is expected to triple in 5 years. With that in mind, in spite of the post I wrote last year about the attitudes of US investment gurus  I looked up another of my big solar losers.
Hanwha Solar One has done very badly in the last few years. I could have sold it for an enormous profit at one time (triple what I paid for it). Instead, it represents a 90% loss for me. Recently it has risen from its utter bottom, although its projections are uninspiring. Then I looked a bit further: it is one of the companies of a gigantic Korean conglomerate founded in 1952. They guarantee their solar panels for 25 years! They just sold 155 MW to South Africa: largest ever solar deal for both HSOL and South Africa. I'll hold it. If it starts to rise convincingly, I'll buy more. I'm watching again.

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