On Energy

The price of oil is $104 this morning, as Obama prepares to give a speech on why the government should support renewable energy projects  in the US. My heavy holdings of renewables are down across the board about 40% on what I paid for them. Many of them are China based, and the investment community has been on a tear against all things Chinese lately, with assertions that they are dishonest. That's pretty funny, coming from our own investors, who generally oppose any legislation to make disclosure more open, or standards more enforceable. But I guess you suspect others of what you are up to yourself. I am not selling my Chinese renewables. I am not focussed enough to be a trader...there are more things than money to attend to in life! (Like cooking, knitting, chatting...)     

One of my major holldings is Cameco, whose CEO said on March 21 (10 days after the tsunami struck Japan and Fukushima Daishi) that while China has frozen approvals of all new nuclear power projects, he believes the country will still ramp up its nuclear output to at least 70 gigawatts from its current capacity of 11 gigawatts."I still don't see, even with a slight pause, why that wouldn't be achieved," Grandey said. "If they achieve by 2020 only 40 gigawatts, which is what's under construction and what's operating, they still would require 20 million pounds a year."
Current global uranium demand is about 180 million pounds a year, with mine output accounting for about 140 million pounds of that. The remainder comes from stockpiles and downgraded weapons-grade uranium.
Cameco, the world's No. 2 uranium producer, plans to double production to 40 million pounds a year by 2018. With contracts in place through 2017, the crisis will not have a material impact on the company's long-term outlook, Grandey said.
 Kazakhstan is the world's top uranium producer, and its output is forecast to grow 12 percent this year to 20,200 tonnes. On March 23, Japan's envoy to Kazakhstan, Yuzo Harada, said he doubts the tragic events in his country will affect nuclear cooperation or uranium supply pacts. Kazakhstan aims to capture 40 percent of the Japanese uranium market.
 
On both Cameco and Dennison mines, I am about breakeven on my holding, even after renewed fears from the radiation in Japan. Cameco pays a 1.3% dividend, pretty low, but better than nothing. I am unhappy with  myself for failing to monitor my portfolio while so many people were suffering dramatically on the news. They are still suffering, and indeed, the suffering is going on all around the world all the time. Mostly it doesn't make the news- like the hundreds of thousands of children dying of hunger annuallly. It doesn't do them any good if my emotions of solidarity prevent me from watching my portfolio and leads me to lose a lot of money.

In my version of the investing and philanthropy of Buffet and Soros, my philanthropy division is proud that I have just made my nineteenth micro-loan through Kiva: this one to a middle-aged bee-keeper in Central Asia!