The great in Davos are confused and uncertain

 I read from the BBC news to-day that the heads of state,  CEOs,  finance ministers and other sophisticated leaders gathered for the last day of the annual Davos forum are not sure what's going on either. The volatility of these markets is unparalleled. In "Manias, Panics, and Crashes", Charles Kindleberger studies the global interrelationship of these events which are so increasingly obvious in the daily media.

The general collapse of the indices late Friday afternoon did not continue in spite of on going demonstrations in the streets of Egypt. The price of oil rose, of course, supposedly because of fears that the Suez canal would be blocked, but these days I doubt that would  make so much difference, since the really giant tankers can't get through there anyway. The price of oil always rises when there is threat of war.

This morning I bought more shares of both TSTC and CREE instead of fiddling with the options as I had planned to do. I was too late to take a promising position in the options. The best profits there are only to be had very near to exaggerated tops and bottoms. In the case of both these companies, things seem to have settled down from the initial exaggeration. Both actually make useful products, actual profits, and growing revenue- the kind of reality that would have made them investments in the old days before flash trading. I am still buying them as investments, but one has to have a high tolerance for the interim swings- a prevailing belief that life is not over even when I lose!

I wrote about  TSTC a little while back, when it  was savaged by an anonymous blogger and dropped 28% (The blogger undoubtedly made big profits from his shorts)

CREE anounced earnings very slightly less than the pundits had expected, and added that their next quarter would  be quieter than usual. For a few percent less profit, the stock immediately sold off 15%  I already hold shares in a tiny Canadian company (Carmanah) that makes LED lights, but I had been looking longingly at CREE for some time- it is the elephant in that sector, and the sector is growing 40% annually.